Bo Li

University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

“Spatially Varying Autoregressive Models for Prediction of New HIV Diagnoses”

Date: Thursday, September 20, 2018

In demand of predicting new HIV diagnosis rates based on publicly available HIV data that is abundant in space but has few points in time, we propose a class of spatially varying autoregressive (SVAR) models compounded with conditional autoregressive (CAR) spatial correlation structures. We then propose to use the copula approach and a flexible CAR formulation to model the dependence between adjacent counties. These models allow for spatial and temporal correlation as well as space-time interactions and are naturally suitable for predicting HIV cases and other spatio-temporal disease data that feature a similar data structure. We apply the proposed models to HIV data over Florida, California and New England states and compare them to a range of linear mixed models that have been recently popular for modeling spatio-temporal disease data. The results show that for such data our proposed models outperform the others in terms of prediction.

Important Dates

January 18: Fall/Winter Term Spanned Classes Voluntary Withdrawal (VW) Deadline

January 21: Course Add Date - the last date to add a course in the revision period for Winter term and Winter/Summer term courses

January 21: Deadline to Apply Online to Graduate for Spring 2019 (most students)

Upcoming Seminars

PIMS lecture: Nancy Reid: “Statistical and Data Science” — Thursday, January 17 at 4 p.m., Robert Schultz Theatre.

Statistics seminar: Erfanul Hoque: “Random effects covariance matrix modeling for longitudinal data with covariates measurement error” — Thursday, January 24 at 2:45 p.m., P230 Duff Roblin.

Statistics seminar: Shirley E. Mills — Wednesday, January 30 at 2:45 p.m., 262 E3 EITC.

Statistics seminar: Yang Wang: “Deep Learning: An Introduction and Recent Advances” — Thursday, February 7 at 2:45 p.m., P230 Duff Roblin.

Where are they now?

Taraneh Abarin, Ph.D. (2009)

Lesley Crisostomo Alagar, M.Sc. (2006)