Bo Li

University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

“Spatially Varying Autoregressive Models for Prediction of New HIV Diagnoses”

Date: Thursday, September 20, 2018
Time: 2:45 p.m.
Location: P230 Duff Roblin

In demand of predicting new HIV diagnosis rates based on publicly available HIV data that is abundant in space but has few points in time, we propose a class of spatially varying autoregressive (SVAR) models compounded with conditional autoregressive (CAR) spatial correlation structures. We then propose to use the copula approach and a flexible CAR formulation to model the dependence between adjacent counties. These models allow for spatial and temporal correlation as well as space-time interactions and are naturally suitable for predicting HIV cases and other spatio-temporal disease data that feature a similar data structure. We apply the proposed models to HIV data over Florida, California and New England states and compare them to a range of linear mixed models that have been recently popular for modeling spatio-temporal disease data. The results show that for such data our proposed models outperform the others in terms of prediction.


Congratulations to our October, 2018 graduates: Jenna Tichon (Ph.D.), Kanika Grover (M.Sc.), Mohammed Kamso (M.Sc.), Inesh Munaweera Arachchilage (M.Sc.), Joynob Siddiqua (M.Sc.), Shamsia Sobhan (M.Sc.).

Important Dates

September 19: Course Add Date - the last date to add a course in the revision period

September 19: Deadline to Apply Online to Graduate for February 2019 (most students)

October 3: Fee Payment Deadline Fall Term

Upcoming Seminars

Statistics seminar: Bo Li: “Spatially Varying Autoregressive Models for Prediction of New HIV Diagnoses” — Thursday, September 20 at 2:45 p.m., P230 Duff Roblin.

Statistics seminar: Mohammad Jafari Jozani: “Quantile Regression with Nominated Samples: An example in Osteoporosis Analysis” — Thursday, September 27 at 2:45 a.m., P230 Duff Roblin.

Statistics seminar: Yuliya Martsynyuk — Thursday, October 4 at 2:45 a.m., P230 Duff Roblin.

Statistics seminar: Darja Barr: “Evidence Driven Best Practices for Teaching the Mathematical Sciences” — Thursday, October 11 at 2:45 a.m., P230 Duff Roblin.

Where are they now?

Taraneh Abarin, Ph.D. (2009)

Yanqing Yi, Ph.D. (2008)