A regional dynamic assessment of emerging manure management in Manitoba

Team:

Project Leader: Dr. Derek Brewin, Dept. Ag. Business and Agric. Econ., University of Manitoba Email: Derek_Brewin@umanitoba.ca
Co-Investigators: Mathew Wiens (MAFRI), Dr. Martin Entz (U of M)
Graduate Student: Collin Gyles, M.Sc. Candidate

Objectives:

This project examined the viability of manure used as a nutrient source for farms in Manitoba. Optimal levels of animals - and manure output - were estimated given varying levels of land user acceptance and fertilizer costs.

The project estimated the dynamic impacts of changing soil capacities as soils become more saturated with phosphorus over time.  Profitability changes for farms as they reach limits and are forced to change manure application rates.  Regulations constrained manure application rates following the provincial guidelines for applications at nitrogen or phosphorus removal rates up to fixed levels of phosphorus.  This project estimated current phosphorus capacities to and the potential for further build up of phosphorus stocks for every rural municipality in Manitoba.

Design:

This project uses a cost minimization simulation to identify manure phosphorus demand at the municipal level Manitoba.  The initial conditions are based on 2006 Census of Agriculture livestock and land use.  The model includes probabilistic phosphorus distributions.  After the manure demand has been determined the livestock quantities which would produce the manure necessary to meet the demand are also calculated.  The results of the simulation indicate that, dependent upon the price of mineral fertilizer and the manure acceptance rate, the phosphorus contained in manure can be effectively utilized as a resource by crop producers in Manitoba. 

Download the Full Thesis here (pdf)