Status Messages for UNSTABLE 2008 IOP
Tuesday 22 July
SYNOPSIS
Non-classic cold front (coll and moisture on north side) passed through most of AB over night leaving northerly winds in its wake. We're hoping dewpoints in the return flow to the foothills hang on as a SFC high builds into the elbow area of AB. Upper-level dynamics are good but there is still a warm nose on our soundings near 700mb. The MARS team reports some cooling aloft at their location (P4). We have opted for the CI1 mission (upslope flow) and are hoping that the Sc in the NE winds will erode through the day. Lat IOD of the project so hoping for some storms.
IOD STATUS
Today: GO
Mission: CI1
Wednesday: NO GO.
Thursday: Project Over.
Instrumentation Status: 3rd mobile surface team operated by Lesley Hill today.
Other Remarks: Last day of operations!
Monday 21 July
SYNOPSIS
Upper ridge affecting much of southern AB with some cooling aloft expected by the end of the day. We decided to go for operations in the northern reaches of the UNSTABLE study domain. If the forecast convergence line comes through near 00Z hopefully we'll get soundings on either side in around the time of CI. Upper-air dynamics are good but low-level moisture and mid-level temperatures are the biggest concern. Confidence is not high for today but Wednesday doesn't look good for operations so hoping for the best today and tomorrow.
IOD STATUS
Today: GO
Mission: CI2
Tuesday: Hoping for one more storm day before the project ends. Likely focus will be southern line of stations and CI1 mission.
Wednesday: Tentatively plan to have operations wrapped up by Wednesday...will give time for data back-up, packing equipment, etc.
Instrumentation Status: 2nd SFC mobile team had a flat tire yesterday...they're back on the road as of this morning.
Other Remarks:
Sunday 20 July
SYNOPSIS
Upper level ridge and calm winds have allowed us to conduct the water vapour gradient mission looking at land cover differences.
IOD STATUS
Today: GO
Mission: WVG2
Monday: Early indications are for limited instability tomorrow with relatively warm temperatures aloft and dry conditions near the surface.
Tuesday: Hoping for a good CI day on Tuesday...still some uncertainty.
Instrumentation Status: Everything OK.
Other Remarks:
Sunday 20 July
SYNOPSIS
Calm and warm today, decent conditions for water vapour gradient mission.
IOD STATUS
Today: NO GO.
Mission: N/A
Sunday: Anticipate another down day but small chance for operations. Preliminary decision will be made at this evening's briefing.
Monday: Monday is looking like the best day of the next couple for operations with winds aloft strengthening from the SW but low-level moisture and surface winds (possibly from the S or SW) could limit this.
Instrumentation Status:
Other Remarks:
Friday 18 July
SYNOPSIS
Upper low has entered AB bringing showers this morning. Expect convection to fill in but not in a way to satisfy our operational missions within the study area. Have opted to stand-down today and tomorrow doesn't look any better. We had a good day yesterday and are now holding out for the Sunday to Wednesday period to use up our last 3 IODs.
IOD STATUS
Today: NO GO.
Mission: N/A
Saturday: Anticipate another down day.
Sunday: Hoping things shape up but suspect may have to wait until Monday...
Instrumentation Status:
Other Remarks:
Thursday 17 July
SYNOPSIS
Conditions evolving more or less as expected. Upper low is tracking S in BC and approaching AB. Today we're sampling two aspects of the pre-storm environment. First the evolution of the cap at mid-levels, and second the evolution of ABL moisture as ET and advection (later) are expected to kick in. The cap may well remain over the study area until late today giving us plenty of time to get soundings and SFC transects in. No aircraft today as we're not focused on a specific transect of interest but trying to characterize a larger area.
IOD STATUS
Today: GO.
Mission: CI1 (CI without clear mesoscale boundary - no aircraft)
Friday: Hoping upper trough holds back long enough for there to still be some dynamics for storms. Hoping for dryline mission tomorrow.
Saturday: Anticipate down day as upper low comes through AB.
Instrumentation Status: Most issues have been resolved...even fops-hal thanks to Ron Goodson
Other Remarks:
Wednesday 16 July for Thursday 17 July
SYNOPSIS
Upper low over Edmonton area progged to move east with next low spinning away in northern BC. Models all bring the low south and east but with some uncertainty with timing it across the mountains and strength of winds aloft as it approaches. SFC moisture not really a huge concern as some SE flow expected to return moisture to the study area over the next two days. Biggest question about tomorrow is whether warm air at low-mid levels will allow CI...then will the low cross the mountains before Friday afternoon or hold back long enough for us to conduct operations on Thursday and Friday.
IOD STATUS
Today: NO GO.
Mission: N/A
Thursday: Leaning toward operations tomorrow though decision will be made at tonight's briefing. Mission would be CI1 (CI with no clear boundary in the study area) or dryline if 700mb flow a little stronger. Cap is a concern but also a feature of interest to the study so even if storms don't go we may get interesting data.
Friday: Current feeling is that Friday will also be a GO for dryline or CI1 observations.
Instrumentation Status:Off to fix the modem at P3 now...still no real-time obs from ATMOS stations but there is a chance for the problem to be resolved tomorrow.
Other Remarks: Spent (a lot) of time with Discovery Channel today...probably too much from Dave and Bill's perspective.
Tuesday 15 July 2008 for Wednesday 16 July
SYNOPSIS
Today was supposed to be a down day as the most intense storms were expected to be outside the UNSTABLE domain. In the end though it was deemed worth conducting modified operations in the SE part of the study area. So we all got a late start on things. The next three days show some promise for possible IODs. In model land things culminate on Friday with good SW flow into AB, potential for a dryline and time for dewpoints to increase to the 10-12 degree range...we could be very busy for the rest of the week.
IOD STATUS
Today: STANDBY became GO for partial operations.
Mission: CI2 (boundary)
Wednesday: Upper trough over the UNSTABLE area keeps things unstable. Strongest winds aloft remain from near YYC and south. Expect general NW flow due to the influence of a SFC high but there is a chance for upslope flow along the foothills. If skies are mainly clear there is potential for development of a mountain-plain circulation and CI along the foothills. This could qualify for the CI1 mission though with the potential for early development it may be tough to get teams in place for pre-storm obs. May recommend only partial observation program to sample storm outflows, etc. at the surface. Will discuss at the briefing.
Thursday: SE track of upper low puts study area in good position with flow strengthening by 00Z. SFC flow is forecast to become SE'ly by 18Z with Td as high as 12. By 00Z CAPE may be as high as 1000 J/kg in the central regions of the study area. Upper level flow not ideal in terms of shear but may be enough for a couple of good storms. Likely consider CI1 mission for this day.
Instrumentation Status:Problem with Craig's system as a cable broke but they may have a quick fix. Power outage in Edmonton may have screwed up fops-hal machine (running Aurora) we do not currently have any real-time ATMOS observations and I can't connect to the machine from here for some reason. Steve Knott also says the mouse and keyboard aren't working. We shouldn't be losing any data but if we cannot get real-time ATMOS obs field coordination in the study area becomes much more difficult.
Other Remarks: Discovery Channel here tomorrow and Thursday.
Monday 14 July 2008
SYNOPSIS
Upper level vorticity center near AB elbow this morning with good upper level flow to the south. 14Z Water Valley sounding with 20/6 gives 650 J/kg and 0-6km shear of 65kt. Expect some destabilization aloft later today. A component of upper flow across the mountain barrier should support a QS dryline but only just hugging the western extent of the UNSTABLE domain.
IOD STATUS
Today: GO
Mission: Dryline
Tuesday: Unknown at this point.
Wednesday: Unknown.
Instrumentation Status:2nd mobile team now equipped with real-time GPS position, we'll see if I can track two teams using the software.
Other Remarks: No aircraft measurements today.
Sunday 13 July 2008
SYNOPSIS
Under influence of flat upper ridge with general height falls today. Expect development of dryline through project area with some chance of decent storms. Focus today is on sampling the dryline though.
IOD STATUS
Today: GO
Mission: Dryline
Monday: At last check looked good for a CI mission though not sure which one yet.
Tuesday: Unknown at this point...will know later.
Instrumentation Status: Sills trying to get the 3rd mobile SFC team up and running but some difficulty with the compass.
Other Remarks: Busy this morning trying to do radiosonde releases and get people into the field...
Saturday 12 July 2008
SYNOPSIS
Relatively calm today with a fair amount of sunshine so conducting the soil moisture gradient mission today. Hoping the light winds hold up to avoid deformation of any mesoscale circulation that may form across the proposed soil moisture gradient. Change in sounding plans as the Water Valley team came to Olds airport to release a 14Z sounding. This allowed the mobile teams to get in place earlier with a 14Z sounding to capture the ABL evolution prior to substantial mixing.
IOD STATUS
Today: GO
Mission: WVG1
Sunday: Uncertainty for convective potential tomorrow. Canadian and other model solutions differ on amounts of troughing and pcpn. Monday may end up being the next operational day as upper trough position more favourable.
Monday: Tentatively looking at operations for one of the CI missions.
Instrumentation Status: Still some issues with the MARS sounding system. 14Z sounding terminated at ~ 750mb. Craig going to try a new antenna...2nd mobile SFC team thinks they've ironed out bugs with their system.
Other Remarks: Nice and sunny now. 14Z sounding here shows mostly 5kt winds in lowest 6000ft.
Friday 11 July 2008
SYNOPSIS
Cool and windy here today, no conditions to satisfy any operational missions so standing down today. Field teams still working on equipment, etc. so people will still be milling about here at the airport.
IOD STATUS
Today: NO GO
Mission: N/A
Saturday: Looking at possibility of WVG1/2 assuming conditions will be calm enough tomorrow. Area of interest may lie slightly out of the UNSTABLE domain but since appropriate conditions for these missions may be hard to come by will still proceed if suitable.
Sunday: Unclear at this point whether Sun or Mon will be better for a CI mission...or both.
Instrumentation Status: Plan to do a few test soundings today from MARS system and WMI system. Also plan to visit sites P1-P3 to download and inspect.
Other Remarks: Teams taking advantage of down day today as we skipped the morning briefing to sleep a little...
Thursday 10 July 2008
SYNOPSIS
Apologies for the late status message today...plan remains the same as last night. Currently standing down but may send AMMOS or other SFC teams if some storms develop. No aircraft or 2-hourly soundings today.
IOD STATUS
Today: NO GO
Mission: N/A
Friday: Anticipate down day.
Saturday: Anticipate down day.
Instrumentation Status: Some work still required on MARS sounding system and 2nd SFC mobile team datalogger.
Other Remarks: Tentatively looking at Sunday as next operational day.
Issued 9 July for Thursday 10 July 2008
SYNOPSIS
On the surface tomorrow doesn't look good...SFC low developing with a cold front sweeping through most of AB acting to remove low-level moisture. There is however a slight chance that if the low/front moves through early enough and a slack flow develops over the foothills we could see some mountain-plain circulation induced upslope flow. If this is the case the deep-layer shear and upper-level thermal structure are favourable for decent storms...confidence is low at this point so propose a morning briefing and possible modified operations. I.e., if things start to shape up later in the morning maybe we try to do some soundings into the inflow region of the storm development area and deploy the AMMOS / 2nd SFC mobile teams for storm observations. Decision will be made in the morning...
IOD STATUS
Tomorrow: STAND BY
Mission: CI1
Wednesday 9 July 2008
SYNOPSIS
Today is the first day of the UNSTABLE IOP and we've decided to conduct operations. An upper trough is coming into AB from the west so that associated cooling aloft is expected to spawn some storms. Our focus for today is to try and sample a weak dryline forecast to develop just within the project area. All teams are in the field with our first mobile soundings to occur V1630Z then returning to the regular 2-hourly schedule for the 18, 20, 22, 24 Z soundings.
IOD STATUS
Today: GO
Mission: QS Dryline
Thursday: Anticipate down day as cold low arrives.
Friday: Anticipate down day.
Instrumentation Status: Equipment seems to be performing as of today. Some issues with sounding system at WMI and requirements for Taylor to get spun-up on prepping sondes for 2-hourly releases there. Will work on over next two down days. Other two-hourly soundings going well.
Other Remarks:
Saturday 5 July 2008 * TEST *
SYNOPSIS
This is just a test status message for UNSTABLE. The message will appear on the UNSTABLE operations web site and be sent via email to field participants beginning on the 8th of July regarding the potential for operations on the 9th. Early indications are for a potentially busy first couple of days...just as we're working out the bugs...
IOD STATUS
Today:
Mission:
Thursday: Anticipate...
Friday: Anticipate...
Instrumentation Status:
Other Remarks: